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Netflix may Reach 2.6m subscribers in Africa by the end of 2021.

It will more than double that to 5.84 million by 2026, when Disney+ will be the No. 2 streamer on the continent, predicts Digital TV Research.

Netflix may end 2021 with 2.61 million streaming subscribers in Africa and more than double that to 5.84 million by 2026, business intelligence company Digital TV Research projected on Thursday.

That would make the global streamer the leader in the space on the African continent. Digital TV Research forecast that subscription video-on-demand users in Africa would, by 2026, number 15.06 million, triple the 5.11 million expected at the end of 2021.

“From the 10 million additions, South Africa and Nigeria will each supply 2.3 million,” the firm said. “These two will be the only countries with more than 1 million subscriptions.”

Netflix’s market share will fall from 51 percent at the end of this year to 39 percent by 2026. Disney+ will launch in the region in 2022, “but only in an expected 12 countries, with 2.17 million paying subscribers forecast by 2026,” the company said. That will make the Disney streamer the No. 2 in the region in 2026, the research firm projects.

“The selective launch plans from some global platforms works in favor of regional players, such as Showmax and MyCanal,” argued Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

Showmax, owned by South African pay TV giant MultiChoice, is currently ranked second with an estimated 861,000 subscribers at the end of 2021. And the company predicts it will reach 2.12 million in five years.

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